How AP Calls Election Winners

Bureau chiefs are responsible for calling election winners for The Associated Press.

Talk to AP bureau chiefs with successful track records in calling election winners quickly and accurately and you hear three things over and over -- preparation, organization and consultation.

For an inside look at the process from the perspective of a chief of bureau, a handful of current and former AP bureau chiefs were interviewed for this election background piece. They tell how they prepare for election night and how they work through their list of races amid the tension and drama of one of the biggest news nights of the year. Here’s an abbreviated compendium of “Best Practices” for bureau chiefs at The Associated Press from Tena Haraldson, Charles Hill, Lee Hughes, Larry Laughlin, Dale Leach, Julie Aicher March and Kevin Walsh.


Preparation

“Know your state,” Kevin Walsh advises bureau chiefs. Walsh was Florida chief of bureau in 2000 when AP was the only news organization that did not prematurely declare George W. Bush president. “You can’t make effective election night decisions if you don’t understand voting patterns and changing demographics in your state," Walsh says. "Take time in advance of the general election to understand the latest trends in Census data and state and county demographic research. Talk with a state or university demographic research expert. Assign a story on the subject as part of your pre-election coverage package. Demographic changes can have profound implications on traditional voting patterns on the county level, particularly with states with high immigration and increasing diversity.” It’s also important to know the candidates’ hometowns, because it could confound your normal perception of that area.

Michigan bureau chief Charles Hill gets ready for an election by compiling spreadsheets with county-by-county past election results for all statewide and congressional races. “I color code with a highlighter so I can see instantly which counties went which way previously,” he says. For each race being called, bureau chiefs should use their political judgment to pick a past reference race that best compares in terms of turnout and competitiveness.

When Julie Aicher March was Albuquerque bureau chief, she made a habit of touching bases before every election with her state’s most high profile political pollster to “go over historical data and discuss any changes around the state that might impact top races. We’d then focus on the top 10 counties and what was expected to happen in each. You need to be aware of demographic and social changes on the local, state and federal level that may sway voters from past practices.”

South Dakota bureau chief Tena Haraldson makes personal contact with the Secretary of State and his or her election coordinator, and sends someone to represent the AP at their annual meeting of county election officials, or auditors. “These are numbers people, so we stress that the AP system is designed to be as accurate as possible and that’s why we must call them back and verify votes. Auditors respect those efforts. Most of them have no idea that AP supplies the vote tabulation for most of the nation,” she says.

Texas bureau chief Dale Leach spends time trying to figure out what’s unique about the upcoming election. “Are there multiple candidates for governor? A controversial ballot issue? Then figure out how that might impact other races in the state. Will it increase turnout among a certain segment of voters? Split an important bloc of voters? Once you’ve figured that out, decide what you’re going to do about it. Are there counties that might bear closer than normal watching?”

An increasingly important focus of pre-election preparation is absentee and early voters. In the 2004 presidential election, absentee and early votes accounted for more than 20 percent of the total vote in 20 states. Eleven more states had between 10 percent and 20 percent of their total vote cast prior to election day. No AP bureau chief can safely call any non-blowout race without a careful assessment of those non-election day voters. Leach, who at the time was Seattle chief of bureau, had staffers call county election officials daily in the week before election day to find out how many absentee ballots had been requested and how many returned. His detailed county-by-county spreadsheets on absentees kept the AP from calling a 2000 Senate race that the networks all called prematurely and had to rescind.

Chiefs also need procedures to track provisional votes, a new election night wrinkle that grew out of the post-2000 election reforms. The AP held back from calling Ohio – and with it the presidency – in 2004 because of the uncertainty over how many provisional ballots had been cast and how they might break. This year, there will be provisional voting history from 2004 to guide bureau chiefs in close elections.

At the AP, we strive for both speed and accuracy in making election calls, and making accurate calls as quickly as possible is even more important in the Internet age. That’s why preparation, organization and consultation are so important. “Being right every time is always the top priority,” says Charles Hill. “The key is not to rely on that standard as a crutch that prevents you from making a timely call.”

• Bottom line, says Hill: “Making the final call is a matter of math, history and gut.”


Information Available

Here's the information AP bureau chiefs have at their disposal:

• Complete spreadsheets of county-by-county results for all recent statewide and U.S. House elections, including a breakout of absentee, early and provisional votes.

• A wealth of information about state and county election practices, including when and where absentees are counted and added to the count, the names and phones numbers of county election officials, the type of voting equipment used in each county, and provisional voting rules.

• Spreadsheets showing statewide and county-by-county the differences between the final AP vote count in the 2004 presidential election and the official, certified count.

• Detailed information on when AP’s county election stringers in each state reported in 2004, and a breakdown of those county reports by different time periods.




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